Interest Rate Cut Nears, Market Sentiment Optimistic, Iron Ore Prices Remain Strong [SMM Brief Comment]

Today, the most-traded iron ore futures contract held up well, with the most-traded contract I2601 closing at 803.5, a slight rebound of 0.82% WoW. Traders showed moderate willingness to sell; steel mills mainly purchased as needed. The market transaction atmosphere was moderate. In Shandong, the mainstream transaction prices for PB fines were 790-795 yuan/mt, up 0-5 yuan/mt from yesterday; in Tangshan, the transaction prices for PB fines were 800-810 yuan/mt, up 5-10 yuan/mt from yesterday.
According to SMM statistics, this week, the hot metal output affected by blast furnace maintenance was 1.146 million mt, a significant decrease of 10.67 million mt WoW, driving the daily average hot metal production to continue its slight rebound, which supported iron ore prices. At the same time, recent remarks by US President Trump fueled market expectations for an interest rate cut, further boosting ore prices. However, news today indicated that Tangshan will implement environmental protection-driven production restrictions from September 15 to 30 to improve air quality. If strictly enforced, this is expected to curb local hot metal production, thereby limiting the upside room for ore prices. Considering that pre-holiday stocking demand has already begun, iron ore prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.